Election researcher on the Saxony-Anhalt election: “Where emotions dominate, facts carry little weight”
Freiburg, 01/09/2026
Saxony-Anhalt will go to the polls on 6 September 2026. Ahead of the election, political scientist Prof. Dr Ulrich Eith discusses the limits of populist rhetoric, long-term changes to Germany’s party system, and the power of political storytelling.
Ulrich Eith, Adjunct Professor at the Department of Political Science at the University of Freiburg and Director of the Studienhaus Wiesneck für politische Bildung (Wiesneck Study Centre for Civic Education). Photo: Ralf Killian
Mr Eith, With the state election in Saxony-Anhalt approaching, the talk of populism is seemingly everywhere. How does political science define the term?
Ulrich Eith: The concept of populism is defined, among other things, by a hostile attitude towards the establishment and a dualistic worldview. This associated “friend-or-foe” mentality manifests itself on a vertical level in the dichotomy of “us down here versus them up there,” and on a horizontal level in an “us versus them” logic. “The others” serves as a placeholder for potentially unpopular groups of people, such as those with a migrant background or those who campaign for feminism. Populists also claim to know the true will of the people and exaggerate existing problems into existential crises, meaning that perceptions of these issues no longer correspond to the actual facts.
In your view, where do you draw the line between political tensions that draw attention to real shortcomings and populist narratives that threaten democracy?
Political polarisation is part of the normal functioning of a democracy. We frequently hear it during election campaigns, sometimes accompanied by populist elements. However, the line is crossed as soon as populist narratives depart from the normative foundations of the German Basic Law. This happens, for example, when the “we” in a dualistic worldview is defined in ethnic-nationalist terms.
I see further red lines in narratives that seek to undermine the rule of law such as by casting doubt on the independence of the courts in an attempt to sow distrust in existing electoral law with the aim of changing it to one’s own advantage. The AfD provides an example of how this can be done. In the run-up to the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, it has called for postal voting to be abolished, citing concerns about potential manipulation. Behind this, however, lies an electoral strategy. Empirical electoral research shows that postal voters tend to vote for different parties, meaning that making it more difficult for them to cast their ballots could benefit the AfD. Other characteristic examples include restricting public protests by putting pressure on demonstrators and attempting to curtail the independence of the press.
In the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD could become the largest party for the first time. In the 2025 federal election, the AfD received twice as many votes as it did in the 2021 federal election. How can this success be explained?
The current global situation is fuelling the rise of populist parties. Whether it be climate change, wars, digitalisation or health insurance and care reform: our society is facing far-reaching processes of change, and democratic parties often react too late and too slowly. For some members of the public, this leads to feelings of fear, being overwhelmed and a loss of control. This is where populists come in. They offer simple answers to complex challenges and claim to represent the true interests of the people, whilst at the same time targeting those they deem ‘to be at fault’ for any grievances. In short: they cast themselves as saviours. This resonates on an emotional level, and where emotions dominate, facts carry little weight. Furthermore, populist parties foster a sense of community amongst their voters by offering them a shared set of values and presenting an alternative to the ongoing process of individualisation. In this way, they create an alternative framework of perception and orientation, thereby suggesting to their voters that they can regain control, even in times of intense pressure for change. Just how successful this strategy has been – and continues to be – is demonstrated by the pro-Brexit slogan ‘Take Back Control’, which promoted the idea of reclaiming control over numerous issues from the EU. With its slogan ‘Take back your country’, the AfD employs a similar narrative.
„This is where populists come in. They offer simple answers to complex challenges and claim to represent the true interests of the people, whilst at the same time targeting those they deem ‘to be at fault’ for any grievances. In short: they cast themselves as saviours. This resonates on an emotional level, and where emotions dominate, facts carry little weight.“
Prof. Dr Ulrich Eith
Political scientist at the University of Freiburg
What does this trend say about political culture and democracy in Germany?
Firstly, this development is not a uniquely German phenomenon. In France, the Rassemblement National enjoys high levels of support, whilst in Italy, Fratelli d’Italia – a party on the right of the political spectrum – is in power. Poland and Hungary are currently, after years of right-wing conservative, populist governments, gradually returning to a greater respect for the rule of law. A European comparison shows that the rise of the AfD in Germany actually appears to be rather belated. This is particularly true given that the danger posed by a polarised worldview is well recognised in Germany too. After all, right-wing populist and far-right parties such as the Republicans and the National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD) have already been represented in German state parliaments. Unlike Alliance 90/The Greens or the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) – now known as Die Linke – the AfD has ultimately failed to integrate into the German party system since its foundation. On the contrary, there was an ever-increasing tendency towards isolation and radicalisation. The ‘firewall’ strategy was also unsuccessful. At present, there is no reason to believe that the AfD will disappear in the near future. Nevertheless, I do not yet see its activities as sustainably destabilising the cornerstones of German democracy or replacing pluralistic society with ethnocentric ‘tribal thinking’ (Karl Popper). However, we must remain vigilant; politicians and civil society must rise to the challenge.
„Unlike Alliance 90/The Greens or the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) – now known as Die Linke – the AfD has ultimately failed to integrate into the German party system since its foundation.“
Prof. Dr Ulrich Eith
Political scientist at the University of Freiburg
To what extent have the media and mainstream political parties contributed to the rise of populist forces?
The loss of trust in the established parties is immense amongst the supporters of populist parties. It is striking that these parties hardly ever manage to convey, in a convincing manner, long-term prospects for the future, along with the opportunities they present and their emotional appeal. There is a lack of a coherent narrative to accompany the facts surrounding electric mobility, wind power and heat pump heating. Populists fill the resulting gap with their own narratives, which they disseminate through their own channels. In the digital age, populist forces are hardly reliant on traditional media any longer and benefit from the rules of the attention economy on social media. In my view, the appeal of populism can be countered through forums for exchange and participatory processes based on dialogue. These help people to feel that they are being listened to and thus gradually overcome their sense of powerlessness in the face of challenging changes. At the same time, it is important to practise, time and again, tolerating contradictions, uncertainties and differences of opinion. Democracy is not a state of being. Democracy is a process.
„In my view, the appeal of populism can be countered through forums for exchange and participatory processes based on dialogue. These help people to feel that they are being listened to and thus gradually overcome their sense of powerlessness in the face of challenging changes. At the same time, it is important to practise, time and again, tolerating contradictions, uncertainties and differences of opinion.“
Prof. Dr Ulrich Eith
Political scientist at the University of Freiburg
About Prof. Dr Ulrich Eith
Prof. Dr Ulrich Eith studied political science, mathematics and sociology. He obtained his doctorate and habilitation in political science. Since 2007, Eith has been an adjunct professor at the Department of Political Science within the Faculty of Humanities at the University of Freiburg and managing director of the ‘Arbeitsgruppe Wahlen Freiburg’. Eith is also director of the Studienhaus Wiesneck, an Institute for Civic Education in Buchenbach near Freiburg. His research interests include electoral and party politics, the German system of government and comparative politics.