Research
Research Programme Structure
Our forests face unprecedented challenges due to rapid climate change, novel disturbances, species shifts, and changes in societal demands and values. All of this brings with it profound uncertainties.
That is why Future Forests is conducting research into robust adaptation options and a basis for decision-making for policy and practice. Our approach is socio-ecological. We combine the natural sciences with medicine, the humanities and forestry economics to jointly explore ways in which forests can adapt to climate change whilst maintaining their ecosystem services. Through its work, Future Forests aims to become an internationally recognised centre for interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary forest research.
To achieve this, the research programme is divided into three closely linked research areas, each comprising several research themes. The research areas are supported by a number of central structures.
Research areas
Research area A quantifies the risks to forest ecosystem functioning and to the provision of ecosystem services (ES) that are driven by both environmental and social factors.
To do so, it analyses resilience and adaptive capacity across different biological levels, drawing on advanced monitoring networks, experiments, and modelling approaches.
Research area B examines how diverse actors — governments, forest owners, NGOs, and citizens — make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity.
It investigates the shifting knowledge bases that inform these decisions, including the evidence available to actors, as well as evolving normative principles such as robustness, legitimacy, and justice.
Research area C forms the integrative core of the Cluster. It advances social-ecological systems (SES) theory, develops regionally-relevant scenarios, and constructs and applies comprehensive multi-scale models.
In addition, it pilots and assesses governance innovations. By integrating data, theory, and practical governance experiments, the area identifies, tests, and facilitates robust and adaptive pathways for the future.
Methods and Innovations
The Cluster builds on the theoretical foundation of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) thinking, which guides research design, collaboration, and management across all activities. A hierarchical and nested study design enables a multi-scale empirical approach, ranging from molecular and organismal processes to landscape and regional dynamics. Advanced modelling and data science play a central role by linking physical, ecological, social, and economic models, while leveraging machine learning, remote sensing, and agent-based modelling.
The research is grounded in real-world case studies and stakeholder co-creation. Our work focuses on two climate-change hotspot regions in Germany, with plans for expansion and knowledge transfer through the International Forest Adaptation Lab (IFAL). Transdisciplinary science communication and outreach complement this approach through innovative strategies to engage policy, practitioners, and the public, fostering the co-production of knowledge and mutual learning.
Central facilities
International Forest Adaption Lab
The International Forest Adaptation Lab (IFAL) is a network for research on the adaptation of forests as social-ecological systems. It plays a central role in the Cluster’s international collaboration, enabling global exchange and the integration of further data and more diverse framework conditions. To this end, IFAL organises exchange formats that bring together researchers and stakeholders across regions and disciplines. In doing so, it supports the transfer of knowledge from the Cluster’s regional case studies to an international scale.
Social-Ecological Systems Case Study Lab
The SES-CaseLab coordinates the Cluster’s case studies and manages stakeholder engagement. By fostering experimental studies across the social and natural sciences, it serves as a structural bridge between the three research areas (A, B, and C), ensuring that empirical case study work and stakeholder co-creation are aligned across the Cluster. The SES-CaseLab also feeds into Research Area C, where it supports SES case experiments as part of the process of identifying and testing adaptation and transformation pathways.
Social-Ecological Systems Modelling Lab
The SES-ModelLab provides technical and conceptual leadership on modelling within the Cluster. Its core mission is to foster the consistent and efficient integration of social-ecological systems (SES) models, ensuring that the physical, ecological, social, and economic models developed across the research areas are linked and coherently aligned.